Forest Systems
Like many inhabitants of forest regions around the world, the people of the Northern Forest, in the eastern U.S., are struggling to balance the forest's ecological integrity with the forest industry's continuing success. The goal of the Sustainability Institute's Forest System Project is to provide tools and resources that focus on the long-term health of the overall ecological and economic system and help the region find a balance that works for all players.
Through our papers, w e share findings from a modeling project that focuses primarily on the second problem, unsustainability, in the forest products economy and forest ecosystem of the Northeastern United States. The model shows the structural potential for lumber industry capacity to overshoot the timber resource of the regional forest. Many of the policies commonly advocated in response to resource shortage such as boosting mill efficiencies and eliminating log exports appear unlikely to solve the problem. We identify several policies with the potential to help sustain both the industry and resource base. We also share insights on how to design a modeling and intervention process when addressing policy problems for which no single organization has direct responsibility. Finally, we consider ways to navigate through three prevalent "defensive routines"–denial, resignation, and despair–that are often barriers to constructive discussion on how to address potential limits to growth.
Simulation Model on Forest Systems
We are presenting our forest systems model in two forms. The first is a small, simplified learning model that will lead users through the structure and behavior of the model. It is currently being built - we will utilize the "storytelling" feature of the system dynamics modeling software, STELLA®. Other examples of this approach are available. Contact us if you would like to see an example of this approach we created on the corn system.
The second is an interactive flight simulator built on top of the complex research model that was presented in the System Dynamics Review article, "Resource sustainability in commodity systems: the sawmill industry in the Northern Forest" by Jones, Seville and Meadows (System Dynamics Review Vol. 18, No. 2, Summer 2002, pp. 171-204).
The flight simulator is available for download for users of the system dynamics modeling software Powersim Constructor. The model equations are not extensively documented for use, but a "control panel" allows users to test multiple policies and assumptions and see the resulting behavior.
Resources
- Short description of the Forest Project, available on-line.
- Resource Sustainability In Commodity Systems: The Sawmill Industry In The Northern Forest (208k pdf), by Andrew Jones, Don Seville, and Donella Meadows
- More information on the software used for the learning model in STELLA® is available at www.hps-inc.com
- Download the flight simulator
- Download a pdf file that describes the various policy and assumption tests available in the control panel of the flight simulator
- More information on the software used for the flight simulator is available at www.powersim.com